ROUND 1…FIGHT!

GAME 1 RECAP: EASTERN CONFERENCE

BULLS VS PACERS 

Right off the bat, the Bulls and Pacers game started off with Indiana distinguishing itself as the aggressor. Darren Collison came out on fire in the first half, scoring fifteen points, and matching Derrick Rose on seemingly every basket. Roy Hibbert was having his way in the paint, and used his 7’2” frame to score easily over an undersized Noah. Indiana was the team playing with the defensive intensity we’ve grown accustomed to see from Chicago. With the exception of Rose, the Pacers completely stifled Chicago’s offense. Danny Granger came out and couldn’t miss a shot if he tried in the 3^rd quarter. Tyler Hansbrough was abusing Carlos Boozer on offense, draining mid-range jumpers at will against him. It appeared as if Indiana had this game in the bag… not if Derrick Rose had anything to do with it.

 Indiana held a double digit lead with 3:30 left to go in the game, when the Bulls made their 4^th quarter run. On the shoulders of Derrick Rose, the Bulls cut a ten point deficit down to one. The Bulls trailed the entire game, until a drive and kick from Derrick Rose out to Kyle Korver proved to be the game-winning three point shot.

You have to give credit to the Pacers, nobody expected them to come out and play as well as they did against the number one team in the East, especially on their home court. I think this game will prove to be a wake-up call for Chicago, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win Game 2 by double digits.

HEAT VS 76ERS

The Sixers came out with the adrenaline pumping for Game 1 against Miami on Saturday. Philly played strong in the first half, jumping out ahead by as many ad 14 points. The Sixers played proficient defense, and it led to fast-break opportunities. Miami turned the Heat up in the 2^nd quarter though, scoring 35 points and outscoring Philadelphia by 17. Lebron completely shut down Andre Iguodala on offense, holding him down to four points, although he did finish with 9 assists and 8 rebounds. It was the play of point guard Jrue Holiday and forward Thaddeus Young which propelled the Sixers back into the game. After a three pointer by James Jones, which gave Miami a 13 point lead, Philly made their run with 6:40 left in the 4^th. Iguodala found an open Thaddeus Young on a backdoor cut underneath the basket to slice the lead down to one. That’s when Dwyane Wade decided to take over.

With a minute-and-a-half left, Wade sealed the game by drawing a foul and making leaning fade-away banker for the 3-point play. Miami dominated the boards after the 1^st quarter, out-rebounding Philadelphia 52-39. They switched to a zone defense which slowed down the Sixers offense and forced them into a half court battle. The Heat got solid contributions from James and Bosh, who both finished with double-doubles, and scored over 20 points.

Game 2 should be another good one, with the Sixers gaining some confidence after their near comeback on Miami in the 4^th quarter. I don’t expect Miami to come out as slow as they did in Game 1, and if Wade is able to play, I expect him to be more engaged in the offense early on. I think it will be a close one, but Miami will hold down home court and take Game 2.

CELTICS VS KNICKS

Sunday’s playoff debut between the Celtics and Knicks lived up to all the hype. The game was tight throughout; with the Knicks making a run in the 2^nd quarter and taking a 12 point lead into the half. Boston came out with their patented shut-down defense in the 3^rd, holding the Knicks down to only 13 points in the quarter. Even with solid D from the Celtics, the Knicks controlled the lead for nearly the entire second half. That is, until Jesus Shuttlesworth emerged in the Garden. 

With 37 seconds left in the game, Tony Douglas, who was in the game for an injured Billups, hit a big 3-point shot to put the Knicks ahead by three. An inbound alley-oop from Rondo to KG cut the lead down to one. The next possession, a controversial offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony gave Boston the ball with 21 seconds left on the clock. The Celtics inbounded and Delonte West swung it over to Ray Allen, when he drained a 3-point dagger and gave Boston the lead. The Knicks were left with no timeouts, and were forced to take it the full length of the court with 11 seconds to go. Douglas takes it up the court and gets it to Carmelo, who forces up a contested three pointer and misses to end the game.

Although the Knicks didn’t end up with the victory, I think they exposed some major vulnerabilities in Boston. Amare Stoudemire was attacking the basket at will, and whether it was Garnett or O’Neal defending, he was too quick for them to keep him in front.

Going back to the iffy offensive foul call on Anthony, although it was in a crucial moment of the game, I don’t blame that as the reason why the Knicks lost. They were up by as many as 12 points, and held the lead nearly the entire game. The injury to Chauncey Billups couldn’t have come at a worst time either. While Douglas filled in admirably, and hit a big three late in the 4^th, I think the experience from Billups might have given New York a better chance at the end.  Time management was also key on that last possession. Left with no timeouts, the Knicks had no choice but to take it up the entire length of the court without a set play, ending up in a bad shot my Carmelo.

You have to give credit to the Celtics, the reason they got Ray Allen was for situations like these. Jermaine O’Neal also played a solid game, ending up with 12 points and 4 blocked shots. They will need him to play a strong 20-25 minutes a game, especially with Shaq still unable to play.

I think the health of Billups will prove to be a major factor if the Knicks want to beat the Celtics, not only in Game 2, but in the series. His leadership and experience is second to none on New York, and in situations like the one they had at the end of Game 1, it might prove to be the difference between winning and losing. 

MAGIC VS HAWKS

After last years shellacking from the Magic, Atlanta came into Game 1 of the playoffs with a more focused mindset. They didn’t look overwhelmed by this Magic team like they did a year ago in their previous playoff encounter.

Atlanta’s game plan was simple; don’t let Orlando beat you from the perimeter. They played Howard straight up, switching off between Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and Jason Collins. The Hawks knew they had nobody to match up to him, but resisting to double team Howard allowed their defense to cover the three ball, which Orlando has lived and died by all season. Howard played a dominant half, scoring a career-high 31 points through the first two quarters.

It was the well-balanced offense by Atlanta that really proved to be the reason they played so effectively. They finished off with five players in double figures, including a valiant performance off the bench from Jamal Crawford, who finished with 23. Although it’s not noted on the box score, Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia played a key role in slowing down Howard in the 2^nd half. Every time would get the ball in the paint, they made sure to foul him hard, and make him earn it at the line.

I had a feeling Atlanta would come out with something to prove, so I wasn’t really too surprised they won the opening game in Orlando. They did provide evidence in the regular season that they might have the blueprint to beat the Magic, winning three out of four meetings, holding the Magic to under 100 points in each one. If Atlanta can keep up that same aggressiveness on defense, and balance on offense, they should be successful in this series.

      With that being said, I see Stan Van Gundy making some adjustments for Game 2, and Orlando probably will take this one down. The Hawks did what they had to do though, and stole one on the road.

PLAYOFFS?!

            

        It came down to the last game of the regular season, but the playoff picture is finally set. Victories by the Lakers and Dallas secured their position as the 2^nd and 3^rd seeds in the West. In the East, the Chicago Bulls clinched home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs and the best record in the NBA with a win over the Nets, coupled by a Spurs loss to Phoenix.

With that being said… let’s break down the 1^st Round Matchups.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers:

          The Chicago Bulls have been a model of consistency all season long. Not only do they possess the best record in the NBA, but also have probably the best defense. They are set to face the Indiana Pacers, who although have a sub .500 record, have shown that they are no walkover with that core of young talent, led by Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, and Darren Collison. This team is capable of putting up points, and if they want to compete in this series, everyone will have to be on fire for the Pacers. Unfortunately for Indiana, they are outmatched in almost every aspect against the Bulls. Chicago is the more physical team, and Indiana has nobody to match up against Derrick Rose or the Bulls front-court. To top it off, Chicago is riding a nine game winning streak into the playoffs. Tom Thibodeau will have this team fired up, and I predict a sweep for the Bulls.

PREDICTION: BULLS IN 4

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers:

          The Miami Heat have been the most scrutinized team in the NBA. After the “Big 3” took their talents to South Beach, no other team has had to deal with as much criticism over a win or loss as they have. The 76ers on the other hand, have flown under the radar nearly the entire year and have become one of the better surprises of the season. Led by Andre Iguodala and a healthy Elton Brand, they have turned into a well balanced team. While they have a solid mixture of good coaching (led by Doug Collins), young athletic players, and veteran leadership, they won’t be able to handle the trio of Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Iguodala is known as a shut down defender, but even then he will probably be matched up against Lebron, leaving Jodie Meeks or Jrue Holiday to cover Wade. Bosh’s quickness and perimeter shooting will stretch out the offense and force Brand out of the paint which will take away Philly’s best rebounder.

           Miami has too much fire power for the 76ers to handle, and I see them maybe taking one down at home, with the Heat laying off a bit after taking control of the series.

PREDICTION: HEAT IN 5

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks:

          This series might be the most exciting one of all the East’s 1^st Round matchups. As I mentioned in my previous post, Boston has basically limped its way into the playoffs. After a strong start to the season, their age has started to take its toll on them and have gotten a little beat up towards the latter end of the season. The Knicks on the other hand, finally have started to mesh and find a groove since the Carmelo Anthony trade. Finishing off the season winning seven out of their last ten games, the streaking Knicks go into the playoffs with confidence and may present a matchup problem for the Celtics. With no Kendrick Perkins to body up Amare Stoudemire, the Knicks can expose that weakness and attack the paint. Also, D’Antoni’s run and gun offense against an older, slower Boston team could wear them down and soften up that defense.

          While the Knicks have enough fire power behind Amare, Melo and a surplus of three point shooters to outscore Boston, I don’t think it will be enough to take down the defending Eastern Conference champions. Let’s not forget, Boston still has their main core of guys healthy, in Rondo, KG, Allen, and Pierce, which have proven that they turn it up a gear when playoff time comes. The key to this series will be if Rondo can get back to that elite level he has shown the last couple of seasons. With all that veteran leadership and experience, and the anemic New York defense, I see the Celtics taking down the Knicks in six. New York might be able to pull out a couple of wins at home with their streak shooting, but it won’t be enough against the veteran Celtics squad.

PREDICTION: CELTICS IN 6 

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks:

          Out of all the series in the East, this might be the most evenly matched one. Atlanta got the best of Orlando in the regular season, winning three out of four. Larry Drew has instilled a more defensive mentality to this team, and they match up well against Orlando. The acquisition of Kirk Hinrich may play a key role if the Hawks want to pull out this series. Shutting down Jameer Nelson will be vital, and the whole reason Atlanta traded for Hinrich is because he is known as a defensive specialist. The Hawks no question possess the more talented, athletic team with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Al Horford in their lineup. Orlando on the other hand, they own the best player on the floor; Superman himself, Dwight Howard. Atlanta has no one who can play Howard straight up, and if they decide to double team him, Orlando’s perimeter shooting will be tough to guard against.

          Atlanta will be playing with something to prove after last seasons embarrassing first round sweep. I think if the Hawks can somehow find a way to contain Howard, and utilize their offensive weapons effectively, they have a chance to make this series go the distance. Don’t forget, in the three victories against Orlando, Atlanta held them down to an average of 79 points per game. I’m going to make a bold prediction and say Atlanta will seek their revenge against the Magic with a chip on their shoulder after last years embarrassing display.

PREDICTION: HAWKS IN 7    

                                                                                                            

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies:

          The Spurs came out this season looking rejuvenated and fresh. Led by great coaching and veteran leadership, San Antonio steadily picked apart the Western Conference with that same championship core of Duncan, Parker and Ginobli. Their role players such as Richard Jefferson and George Hill have also been solid throughout, and add another dimension offensively which Spurs teams of the past lacked. The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the more underrated teams this year, heading to the playoffs for the first time since the 05-06 season.

          Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they lost their best player, Rudy Gay for the remainder of the year. Even with out Gay, Memphis has put their offensive load on the back of Zach Randolph and O.J. Mayo. Randolph has been almost unguardable at times, and if Memphis wants a shot to beat the Spurs, he will have to be. The Grizzlies will have to take advantage of their size over San Antonio, with both Gasol and Randolph being interior scoring threats. Even with their young talent, the absence of Rudy Gay eliminates their most consistent shooter, and I feel will be too much to overcome against San Antonio. I don’t see this series going more than five games, even if Ginobli misses any time.

PREDICTION: SPURS IN 5

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets:

          The two-time defending champs, much like the Miami Heat, have been scrutinized every time they won or lost a game this season. While the Lakers didn’t end the year on a good note, losing five out of their last six, they still ended up with the 2^nd seed in the West. Kobe Bryant is still one of the top five players in the world, and the Lakers are too deep for New Orleans to match up against. The absence of David West takes away the Hornets second best scoring option, and one of their best defenders/rebounders. Chris Paul has simply not been the same since his injury, and is missing that quickness and burst he once had.

          The size of L.A. will dominate New Orleans inside, and make it that much easier for Kobe Bryant to score at will. Even if Bynum ends up missing any time, I still see the Lakers taking this one in no more than five games.

PREDICTION: LAKERS IN 5

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers:

          The Mavericks and Blazers series is another one I deem poised for an upset. While the Mavs have the big name superstar in Dirk, and Hall of Fame point guard with Jason Kidd, they have shown this season that when it comes to big games, they tend to crumble when the pressure is on. Portland has had to deal with a plethora of injuries all season long. They lost Greg Oden before the year even began, with Marcus Camby and Brandon Roy hurt most of the year also. Nevertheless, Portland has filled those voids with the All-Star caliber play of LaMarcus Aldridge, and the veteran leadership of Andre Miller. Acquiring Gerald Wallace was probably the biggest reason why they are playing at such a high level right now. Wallace brings another dimension to Portland, giving them a tenacious defender as well as someone who could stretch the floor with his perimeter shooting, and create his own shot whenever needed. I think Brandon Roy will emerge as the key to Portland defeating Dallas in the first round. Although he is no longer in the starting lineup, the guy has always been a winner, and I feel he will play more like his old self once the playoff intensity kicks in.

          Dallas on paper has the better team, but they have been knocked out of the playoffs the last three years in the first round. I think history will repeat itself once again, and I see the Trailblazers taking out the Mavs in seven.

PREDICTION: BLAZERS IN 7

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets:                   

          The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be the most feared team in the Western Conference right now. With the All-Star combination of point guard Russell Westbrook, and the scoring champion Kevin Durant, its no surprise why this is the case. The addition of Kendrick Perkins and emergence of Serge Ibaka have solidified the Thunders front-court significantly on defense. James Harden coming off the bench as the sixth man has given the second unit a big advantage against their opponents, averaging nearly 16ppg and around 30 minutes per game since the departure of Jeff Green.

          The Denver Nuggets have had a terrific and eventful season as well. While the trade of Carmelo Anthony would seem to have derailed this team, it actually strengthened it. The additions of Galinari, Felton and Wilson Chandler were just what George Karl needed. Ironically, the Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring even without the Melo, and have added great depth and balance with their new additions. This should be an exciting, high scoring series. I have to give the edge to OKC, only because they have the two best players on the court. Denver has nobody to stop Durant or Westbrook, and the presence of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka down low will slow down the Denver front court of Martin and Nene.

          Denver’s season has been impressive to say the least, unfortunately for them they have to face probably the best overall team in the West, with the exception of perhaps the Lakers. I’ll take the Thunder in six games.

PREDICTION: THUNDER IN 6

Turn Up the HEAT!

 After Monday nights games, the Eastern Conference playoff race is locked up after the Heat defeated the Atlanta Hawks, coupled by a loss from the Boston Celtics to the Washington Wizards which secured the Heat the No.2 spot in the East. The Knicks clinched the 6^th spot and will face a Celtics squad who seems to be limping its way into the playoffs, while the Sixers will face a red hot Miami squad at the 7^th spot.

The 2^nd seed was basically locked up after Sunday’s matchup between the two eastern powers, when the Miami Heat finally achieved their first victory of the season against the Celtics. It couldn’t have come at a better time with the Playoffs less than a week away. More importantly, the victory ensured the Heat home court advantage in the second round, should these two face each other again.

Sunday’s game might have given us a glimpse into the future, as it showed us what this Miami Heat team playing its best all-around ball is capable of. With the exception of the first few minutes of the 1st quarter, when Boston jumped out to a nine point lead, the Heat controlled nearly the entire game after that. The Heat’s identity seemed to finally have come out, completely dominating the game with stifling defense and explosive offense. The Celtics on the other hand, seemed to be a step behind, in some cases two or three steps back. The stats that really caught my attention were the rebounding and second chance opportunities. The Celtics were outrebounded 42 to 16, while 15 of those came on the offensive end, which led to Miami getting 18 second chance points. The Heat were scoring at will in the paint, scoring a total of scoring 44 points in the interior. Miami’s bench also played a key role and outscored Boston’s bench by 20 points. The Heat had a total of 11 players on the scoreboard, and played with the playoff intensity necessary at this time of the year.

 It has become obvious that the absence of Kendrick Perkins in the middle for Boston has become a significant flaw, as they have suffered without his toughness and defensive tenacity which was once the trademark of this team. The Celtics have gone 10-9 in their last 19 games, which is somewhat reminiscent of what they did last season when they staggered into the playoffs and fell one game short of winning yet another title. The difference this season appears to be that their age and injuries seem to be taking their toll, and the Eastern conference has strengthened considerably with the emergence of the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. With that being said, I still don’t count the Celtics out completely. They still have four of their five starters from their championship team, including their Big 3 in Allen, Pierce and Garnett posting some of the best numbers of their careers since their prime. Let’s not forget that they’re still the defending Eastern Conference champs, and have amassed 55 victories with a 3^rd place finish in the East.

With the Sixers now set to face the Heat, I have a feeling this series won’t be as easy as people tend to believe. Although the Sixers have yet to win a game this season against Miami, they have a much improved defense under Doug Collins, and their offense is capable of putting up points, led by Andre Iguodala and a rejuvenated Elton Brand. I think the key to this series if Philadelphia wants to have a shot is to exploit Miami’s lack of size by attacking the paint. Elton Brand is a matchup problem no matter who he is facing, whether that’s Bosh or whoever Miami decides to put at center. Also to the Sixers advantage is Miami’s lack of depth at the bench. I believe the point guard position led by Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams will have to play a vital role for the Sixers. Both players are streak shooters and very quick. If they can exploit this matchup and maybe steal one in Miami, you never know what could happen.

Personally, I just don’t see the Sixers taking down the Heat in a best of seven, especially while controlling home court advantage. The trio of Lebron, Wade and Bosh will prove to be too much for their undersized guards to handle, and I believe the series will end in six at most.

The Celtics and Knicks first round matchup has the makings of an upset written all over it. The Knicks are riding a seven game win streak with two games left on schedule, while the Boston Celtics have been struggling over the last month or so, basically playing .500 ball since the All-Star break. The Knicks can put up points quickly, and are riding the momentum into the playoffs. The matchup at the center is definitely one that the Knicks have to take advantage of if they want to take control of this series. No one for the Celtics can shut down STAT one on one; if they can control the paint and force Boston to double team Amare, the Knicks perimeter shooting led by Carmelo Anthony could be a major factor in this series. With that being said though, the lack of defense for NY is what I believe will ultimately be their downfall in the 1^st round. Boston still has championship quality players on their team, and as they showed last year, the intensity in the playoffs may be too much for this young Knicks team to handle against the defending Eastern Conference champs.

Catch me on my next post when I will break down the rest of the playoff matchups, and also the race for 2^nd place in the West!